McCain Win in New Hampshire Devastating to Romney

Robert Novak has a column out this morning in which he says last night's loss in New Hampshire for Mitt Romney was devastating:

Romney's loss here was devastating. He planned to boost his modest national
ratings with wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, where he led in spending,
organization and polls.

At the beginning of December, Romney enjoyed
twice as much New Hampshire support as McCain. The senator's local supporters
attribute his comeback to the endorsement here of independent Democratic Sen.
Joseph Lieberman. But what propelled McCain's victory was Romney's loss in Iowa
to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. The onetime Baptist preacher relied on
Iowa evangelicals, an asset lacking in New Hampshire.

The next two weeks are filled with promise for McCain and peril for Romney. Michigan, where Romney grew up (the son of Gov. George Romney), is the next primary, on Jan. 15. But McCain is popular in Michigan, where he defeated Bush in 2000. Another loss for Romney probably ends his candidacy.

South Carolina comes after that on Jan. 19, with Huckabee running in his first Southern primary.

Video of Mike Huckabee Speaking to Supporters in New Hampshire - 1/8/08

Here is video of Mike Huckabee speaking to New Hampshire supporters after taking third in the primary there, January 8, 2008:

A Big Night for Mike Huckabee in New Hampshire

John Ellis has written an amazing piece for Real Clear Politics in which he argues that Mike Huckabee was a huge winner tonight in New Hampshire:

Iowa was grand for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, but New Hampshire was a bonanza. He cast his bread upon the waters there and though he finished a distant third, it was returned manifold. The one thing that Huckabee cannot afford, at this stage of the race, is head-to-head defeat. He needs at least two "strong" candidates in the field while he puts together the pieces of his Republican proletariat coalition.

What New Hampshire delivered last night was a revitalized Sen. John McCain, which makes Michigan a three-way race, which makes Gov. Huckabee's campaign there viable. If ever there was an electorate that is ripe for Gov. Huckabee's mix of economic populism and compassionate Christianity, it's down-trodden Michigan Republican primary voters. McCain won there in 2000 with strong support from Independents and he will direct all of his efforts at getting those independents to double down, one last time. Romney will throw everything he has at Michigan, to avoid elimination. Given a McCain surge and a Romney splurge, it's not hard to imagine a three-way split, with Huckabee doing surprisingly well in the collar counties around Detroit and drawing from the well of his base in the western and northwestern counties. Who knows, he might even win Michigan, which would set up South Carolina for a kill.

With McCain now anointed by clueless Washington scribes as the putative front-runner, the Arizona Senator must compete in South Carolina, because he will be expected to and because he has some unfinished business there from the 2000 campaign. Former Senator Fred Thompson has announced that he too will make a stand in South Carolina, although this may be moot by week's end. Romney will compete there, at least with negative television commercials, if only to cut McCain. The net result of all of that will likely be a convincing Huckabee victory, which should solidify Huckabee's lock on the Southern primary states and enable his campaign to poach in border states, in the Midwest and in the Rocky Mountain States.

A strong Huckabee showing in Michigan and a convincing win in South Carolina would set up a showdown with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani in Florida, one that Huckabee could afford to lose. Indeed, he might even want to lose it, if only to fatten Giuliani up for his eventual slaughter on the altar of social conservatism. Again, the longer Huckabee faces two "not Huckabee" candidates, all of whom are alien or anathema to the GOP's core Sunbelt/Christian constituencies, the more likely it is he will eventually emerge victorious in the final showdown, wherever that might occur.

And if the results in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary were not bonanza enough, Huckabee got the added boost of Senator Clinton's resurrection from the dead. What better to inflame the passions of Huckabee's more rabid partisans than the renewed prospect of Holy War against the hated Hillary. And what better way could there be to diminish the impact of McCain's revival than a bigger story burying his news.

In case you hadn't noticed, click your mouse around this website until you get to National GOP Presidential Polls. Guess who's tied for the lead or leading now in virtually every national poll. He may have finished third in New Hampshire, but he took a large step forward tonight. If he keeps it up, and things keep breaking his way, there will be no one left to stop him.

Mike Huckabee Message to Supporters from New Hampshire

Here is what Mike Huckabee wrote to supporters tonight after coming in third in New Hampshire:

I just finished speaking to our supporters in new Hampshire before heading off to South Carolina. We are running a strong third place finish as I write, our rivals had a long history in New Hampshire, deeper organizations and millions of dollars of advertising in the state. Just weeks ago we were polling 5th and 6th in the state. Tonight we finished strong and came in third. A special thanks to the people of New Hampshire! Thank you to the volunteers on the ground and our dedicated campaign staff that made this happen.

Our ideas are resonating: our strong support for life and marriage, securing our borders, preventative health care, energy independence and massive tax reform all helped propel us here.

Lets keep it going. Important primaries in Michigan, South Carolina and Florida are ahead of us and we must be prepared.

Mike Huckabee to Finish Third in New Hampshire

Mike Huckabee is going to finish a very respectable third in New Hampshire, it appears, ahead of Rudy Giuliani. Huckabee has 11% of the vote with 80% of the precincts reporting, which would give him at least one delegate. This is a strong performance for Mike, as he heads to Michigan and South Carolina.

Hukcabee Looks For Added Positive Exposure in New Hampshire

Here is an MSNBC news video that centers on Mike Huckabee's strategy to gain positive exposure in New Hampshire, with an eye beyond New Hampshire:

Huckabee Nows Leads GOP Race Nationally

Mike Huckabee has now taken first place for the GOP Nomination in the prestigious Real Clear Politics Average of Polls! He has unseated Rudy Giuliani and now leads:

20.7% Mike Huckabee
20.0% John McCain
19.0% Rudy Giuliani
12.0% Mitt Romney
10.7% Fred Thompson

Why Mike Huckabee is the Strongest Candidate for the GOP

Here is a great analysis by Bill Kristol in which he explains why Mike Huckabee just might be the GOP's most formidable candidate:

Thank you, Senator Obama. You’ve defeated Senator Clinton in Iowa. It looks as if you’re about to beat her in New Hampshire. There will be no Clinton Restoration. A nation turns its grateful eyes to you.

But gratitude for sparing us a third Clinton term only goes so far. Who, inquiring minds want to know, is going to spare us a first Obama term? After all, for all his ability and charm, Barack Obama is still a liberal Democrat. Some of us would much prefer a non-liberal and non-Democratic administration. We don’t want to increase the scope of the nanny state, we don’t want to undo the good done by the appointments of John Roberts and Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court, and we really don’t want to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory in Iraq.

For me, therefore, the most interesting moment in Saturday night’s Republican debate at St. Anselm College was when the candidates were asked what arguments they would make if they found themselves running against Obama in the general election.

The best answer came, not surprisingly, from the best Republican campaigner so far — Mike Huckabee. He began by calmly mentioning his and Obama’s contrasting views on issues from guns to life to same-sex marriage. This served to remind Republicans that these contrasts have been central to G.O.P. success over the last quarter-century, and to suggest that Huckabee could credibly and comfortably make the socially conservative case in an electorally advantageous way.

Huckabee went on to pay tribute to Obama for his ability “to touch at the core of something Americans want” in seeming to move beyond partisanship. And, he added, Senator Obama is “a likable person who has excited people about wanting to vote who have not voted in the past.” Huckabee was of course aware that in praising Obama he was recommending himself

I was watching the debate at the home of a savvy, moderately conservative New Hampshire Republican. It was at this moment that he turned to me and said: “You know, I’ve been a huge skeptic about Huckabee. I’m still not voting for him Tuesday. But I’ve got to say — I like him. And I wonder — could he be our strongest nominee?”

He could be. After the last two elections, featuring the well-born George Bush and Al Gore and John Kerry, Americans — even Republicans! — are ready for a likable regular guy. Huckabee seems to be that. He came up from modest origins. He served as governor of Arkansas for more than a decade. He fought a successful battle against being overweight. These may not be utterly compelling qualifications for the presidency. I’m certainly not ready to sign up.

Still, as the conservative writer Michael Medved put it, “For the work-hard-to-get-ahead strivers who represent the heart and soul of the G.O.P., there are obvious, powerful points of identification.” And they speak to younger voters who are not yet committed to the G.O.P. In Iowa, Huckabee did something like what Obama did on the Democratic side, albeit on a smaller scale. He drew new voters to the caucuses. And he defeated Mitt Romney by almost two to one, and John McCain by better than four to one, among voters under 45.

Now it’s true that many conservatives have serious doubts about Huckabee’s positions, especially on foreign policy, and his record, particularly on taxes. The conservative establishment is strikingly hostile to Huckabee — for both good and bad reasons. But voters seem to be enjoying making up their own minds this year. And Huckabee is a talented politician.

His campaigning in New Hampshire has been impressive. At a Friday night event at New England College in Henniker, he played bass with a local rock band, Mama Kicks. One secular New Hampshire Republican’s reaction: “Gee, he’s not some kind of crazy Christian. He’s an ordinary American.”

In general, here in New Hampshire he’s emphasized social issues far less than in Iowa (though he doesn’t waffle when asked about them). Instead he’s stressed conservative economic themes, seamlessly (if somewhat inconsistently) weaving together a pitch for limited government with a message that government needs to do more to address the concerns of the struggling middle class. This latter point seems to be resonating, as headlines in local papers announce an increase in the national unemployment rate amid speculation about a coming recession.

Some Democrats are licking their chops at the prospect of a Huckabee nomination. They shouldn’t be. For one thing, Michael Bloomberg would be tempted to run in the event of an Obama-Huckabee race — and he would most likely take votes primarily from Obama. But whatever Bloomberg does, the fact is that the Republican establishment spent 2007 underestimating Mike Huckabee. If Huckabee does win the nomination, it would be amusing if Democrats made the same mistake in 2008.

Mike Huckabee On CNN American Morning - 01/04/08

Here is a good interview of Mike Huckabee by CNN American Morning on the morning after Mike's big win in Iowa.

Iowa Victor Mike Huckabee on The Today Show - Video 1/4/08

Here is video of Mike Huckabee on The Today Show this morning:

The Inside Story on Huckabee's Iowa Victory

Byron York at National Review has written an outstanding piece giving the inside story behind Mike Huckabee's amazing win in Iowa:

Des Moines, Iowa — On the night before the Iowa caucuses, I dropped by Mike Huckabee’s campaign headquarters on Sixth Avenue in downtown Des Moines. Upstairs, in the phone-bank room, the scene was part political operation and part day care center; supporters who volunteered to make calls for Huckabee had brought their children, who were playing games while their parents worked the phone lists. In a cluttered side room, I sat down with Chip Saltsman, Huckabee’s campaign manager, and Robert Wickers, his media adviser, while four year-old James Yoest, the son of another Huckabee adviser, Charmaine Yoest, slept on a blanket spread across the floor.

Something was up. Saltsman and Wickers gave off a certain sense of serenity; they seemed to know that their man was doing very well. I would have suspected that they had some secret research showing that Huckabee would win the next day, but I knew the campaign didn’t have the money for such luxuries. So I listened as Saltsman gave what was essentially a play-by-play analysis of the Huckabee victory to come.

The campaign’s strategy was shaped by two things, Saltsman said. First was Huckabee’s talent as a communicator, and second was the fact that the campaign was always nearly broke. Put those two together, and you had a campaign constantly searching for free media exposure. “We’ve been criticized sometimes for — after a big event, we went straight to Washington to do media, or we went straight to New York to do media,” Saltsman said. “That was because a lot of those shows wouldn’t have us on unless we did that.”

“We didn’t have any money,” Wickers added.

“Exactly,” Saltsman said. “But we knew that was a big part of the process for us.”

So Huckabee went from show to show, and he came up with other attention-getting moves like devoting his first commercial to the now-famous “Chuck Norris” ad. “Any other campaign, that ad never gets shown,” Saltsman told me, “because you have a conference room full of consultants saying you can’t do it.” At the moment Saltsman was saying that in Des Moines, Huckabee himself was in California, sitting down to talk on The Tonight Show — perhaps the ultimate in free media. A number of commentators thought that was a blunder; Saltsman checked the number of Iowa homes tuned into the show on any given evening and thought it was a pretty good idea.

That disconnect between the conventional wisdom and Huckabee’s strategy worked time and again in the campaign’s favor. The most notable occasion was last week’s news conference in which Huckabee announced that he had created a television ad attacking Mitt Romney but had decided not air it. The national press corps laughed derisively. But Saltsman and Wickers believed that Iowans viewed it differently. What the press saw as too-clever-by-half opportunism, the voters saw as Huckabee saying, “I’ve been hit by lots of negative ads. There’s a temptation to hit back. But you know, I’m just not going to do it. It wouldn’t be right.” Huckabee came out fine.

As they put together a bare-bones, unconventional campaign, foraging on the free-media environment, the Huckabee team kept a close eye on Romney’s organization. They studied publicly available polling, which showed Huckabee moving upward, but they also paid a lot of attention to what Wickers called the Romney campaign’s “body language.” Simply put, in the final days of the race, Team Romney wasn’t acting like a winner. “If you have what you’re promoting as the best ground operation and organization in the state, that means the campaign manager is going to have on his laptop an Excel spreadsheet that identifies every hard-core Romney supporter in every county,” Wickers explained in a conversation after the caucuses. “That says, ‘We’ve got this campaign won. We’re done.’“ But the vibe coming out of the Romney campaign was different. “When Governor Romney was talking about lowering expectations, when he started to say that they were going to come back and win Iowa in November, I knew right there, that’s not a candidate who has information and data that shows he’s going to win,” Wickers told me. And indeed, Romney didn’t.

On the day of the caucuses, I checked Romney’s schedule and noticed that he was set to appear at a Kum & Go — a popular convenience store — in West Des Moines. The convenience store backdrop seemed a bit Huckabee-esque, until I arrived to discover that the event was being held not at a Kum & Go, but at the corporate headquarters of Kum & Go, a company called Krause-Gentle, which also owns a variety of other businesses. The CEO of Krause-Gentle is a Romney fan and invited him to speak there.

Before the event — one in which Romney’s appearance was jarringly preceded by a music system playing Garth Brooks drinking songs — Eric Fehrnstrom, a spokesman who had traveled with Romney all around Iowa, explained his view of the Huckabee campaign. “We’re going up against a loose confederation of fair taxers, and homeschoolers, and Bible study members, and so this will be a test to see who can generate the most bodies on caucus day,” Fehrnstrom said.

“Not that there’s anything wrong with any of those groups?” I interrupted.

“Not that there’s anything wrong, but that’s just a fact,” Fehrnstrom continued. “That’s just where he has found his support. I have a theory about why Mike Huckabee holds public events in Iowa like getting a haircut or going jogging, or actually leaving Iowa and going to California to appear on the Jay Leno show. It’s because he doesn’t have the infrastructure to plan events for him. And when he does do events in Iowa, he goes to the Pizza Ranch, where you have a built-in crowd, so you don’t have to make calls to turn people out. We’re very proud of the organization we have built in Iowa.”

Fehrnstrom, like the rest of Romney’s team, was unfailingly professional. But his analysis pointed to a blind spot in the Romney campaign, a blind spot most likely shared by the candidate himself. For all his money, and all his energy, and all his organizational skills, Romney could not put to rest the doubts many Iowa Republicans felt about his genuineness, or lack of genuineness. As they paid more attention to politics in the days leading up to the caucuses, some of those voters came to believe that Huckabee had more of that indefinable something that they want in a candidate. In the end, the race wasn’t about infrastructure at all — something Romney never figured out but Huckabee knew all along.

Mike Huckabee Victory Speech in Iowa

Here is Mike Huckabee's victory speech last night in Iowa. This speech demostrates why Mike is an extremely formidable candidate. He gives a truly outstanding speech, and demonstrates his ability to inspire and connect with average people in a way no GOP politician has really done since -- Ronald Reagan.

It's Mike in Iowa!

Mike Huckabee has swept to victory in Iowa tonight, despite the efforts of Mitt Romney and the media to destroy his campaign. He won because he has a message of hope and change. He won because people believe Mike when he speaks to them. And that is going to continue beyond Iowa!

New Video Shows Bhutto's Final Moments

Here is new video released in Pakistan today of the final moments of Benazir Bhutto's life. It shows her standing up in a vehicle just ahead of the fateful moments that took her life:

Huckabee and Norris Discuss How the Fair Tax Helps America - Video

Here is video of Mike Huckabee and Chuck Norris discussing how the Fair Tax would help America: