New LA Times Poll Shows Huckabee with Strong Iowa Lead - 12/27/07

A new LA Times/Bloomberg Poll shows Mike Huckabee with a 14% point lead in Iowa just one week ahead of the Iowa Caucuses. The poll has Huckabee with 37%, Romney at 23%, and Fred Thompson/John McCain both at 11%. Here is the report:

Among Republicans in Iowa, where evangelical conservatives are particularly influential in the GOP, Huckabee has jumped from the back of the pack despite Romney's heavy spending and campaign time in the state. Huckabee, who is stumping with an openly religious message, is appealing to conservatives who are not enamored of candidates such as McCain, who has diverged from the GOP party line on tax cuts, campaign finance reform and other issues.

"I am a religious man myself, so that is something that appeals to me," said Chuck Taylor, a retired truck driver in New Sharon, Iowa. "Some of the other candidates don't coincide with my values."

The poll found Huckabee dominates Romney and the rest of the field not only among born-again Christians and regular churchgoers in Iowa, but also among women and disaffected voters.

He was supported by 46% of the women surveyed, and 44% of the people who believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. Huckabee has argued with other Republican candidates, saying the party needs to acknowledge the pocketbook anxieties of middle-class voters.

The Iowa race is essentially a two-man race between Huckabee (37%) and Romney (23%); the other candidates are far behind. McCain and former Sen. Fred Thompson drew 11%, and former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Reps. Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter were in the single digits.

The poll, under the supervision of Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus, was conducted Dec. 20 to 23 and Dec. 26 in telephone interviews with 2,145 registered voters in Iowa and 1,279 in New Hampshire. The margin of sampling error among Democratic primary and caucus voters in both states was plus or minus 4 percentage points; for Republican caucus voters in Iowa it was 6 points; for Republican voters in New Hampshire it was 5 points.